Over the weekend, the geopolitical temperature rose quickly.
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran reportedly killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. More than 200 people were reported killed inside the country. President Trump issued a series of public statements that, as usual, left observers debating whether they were strategic, spontaneous, or both. The early messaging suggests this is intended as a limited engagement rather than a prolonged war, but markets rarely wait for clarity.
I heard something interesting from a long-time Republican and Trump supporter speaking to a group of fellow voters:
“I don’t know about you, but I didn’t vote for a full-scale invasion and war with Iran.”
That comment captures something deeper than politics. It captures uncertainty. And uncertainty is what markets price.
These episodes ripple beyond the potential for a stock market shock or oil spike. They touch energy prices, inflation expectations, Treasury yields, consumer confidence, and corporate capital spending. They affect how CEOs think. How central banks think. How investors behave.
And yet, markets opened with surprising resilience.
Oil up. Gold up. Stocks modestly lower.
The bigger surprise? Treasury yields rising rather than falling.
Historically, geopolitical shocks often trigger safe-haven buying in U.S. Treasuries. This time, yields moved higher, likely reflecting concern that elevated oil prices could feed inflation rather than suppress growth. Inflation risk offsets the traditional flight-to-safety trade.
That subtle shift matters.
The Chart of Fears
The image below has made its rounds for years. It plots the Dow Jones alongside major geopolitical and economic shocks since 1900.
San Francisco earthquake.
World War I.
The Great Depression.
Pearl Harbor.
Cuban Missile Crisis.
Oil Embargo.
Black Monday.
9/11.
Global Financial Crisis.
COVID.
Russia invades Ukraine.
Hamas attacks Israel.
And yet, over time, markets compound upward.
That doesn’t make the events trivial. It doesn’t diminish human cost. But it reminds us of something essential to long-term investors:
Markets price fear quickly.
Then they move on.
As shown in the historical perspective from Carson Investment Research, the long arc of capital markets has rewarded disciplined participation despite repeated crises.
Wall Street has long repeated its maxims:
Buy on the cannons.
Sell on the trumpets.
Buy when there is blood in the streets.
They sound cold. But they reflect a reality: peak fear often coincides with peak mispricing.
Younger Dane vs. Older Dane
If you asked me 15–20 years ago whether a full-scale invasion of Iran would crash the stock market, younger Dane would have confidently said yes. He might even have rationalized it as necessary, believing the recovery would justify the turmoil.
Twenty years later, I’m much more humble – relatively speaking according to my partner Tim 😉.
I am of course, still ignorant relative to the version of me 20 years from now, but more aware of how little I truly know about geopolitical necessity or strategy. The powers that be either know what they are doing or they do not. My opinion does not alter the course of events.
I am fortunate to live in relative safety in the United States. I have traveled enough to understand how fortunate that is. I recognize that the world is complicated, imperfect, and uneven. But as Chief Investment Officer, my role is not to adjudicate global politics.
My role is to remain calm.
To separate tragedy from trading.
To avoid allowing political emotion to distort portfolio construction.
What Markets Are Actually Saying
So far, the market reaction has been textbook:
• Oil higher
• Gold higher
• Defense stocks supported
• Travel and airlines pressured
• Broad equities modestly lower
• Treasury yields rising
Oil shocks matter if they persist. Sustained higher energy prices can compress corporate margins and pressure consumers. But we have lived through oil spikes before. They are painful, but not automatically catastrophic for equities.
This is also a reminder why one should nearly never short energy stocks. Energy is geopolitical insurance embedded inside portfolios.
Defense spending likely remains supported in a world that has become structurally less stable over the last decade.
And since we are already in a drawdown in parts of big tech, software, and AI-related names, further geopolitically driven volatility may present opportunity rather than structural damage.
Younger Dane would have expected panic.
Instead, markets are behaving like markets that have seen crises before.
The Macro Backdrop This Week
It’s the beginning of the month. Seasonally, March tends to improve after February’s volatility.
On the economic calendar:
• ISM Manufacturing
• ADP employment data
• February jobs report
• Retail sales
• Unemployment rate
If inflation expectations rise because of oil, that could influence Federal Reserve policy expectations. That’s where the second-order effects begin to matter more than the headline.
Markets don’t move on events.
They move on how events alter expectations.
Our Posture at Members’ Wealth
At Members’ Wealth, we focus on:
Risk. Investments. Tax. Estate.
This is precisely when discipline matters.
We are not repositioning portfolios based on headlines.
We are monitoring oil, inflation expectations, rates, and credit spreads.
We are looking for mispricings created by emotion.
We do not trade in reaction to cable news.
We are long-term positive.
We expect noise.
We expect volatility.
History tells us geopolitical shocks are often sharp and short-lived from a market perspective. The base case currently appears to be a limited engagement rather than prolonged war. If that changes, we adapt. But we do not pre-emptively panic.
A Human Reminder
None of this analysis diminishes the human cost.
War, justified or not, is tragic. Families are affected. Service members deploy. Lives change.
Our thoughts are with the men and women in uniform and their families. May they come home safely.
Final Thought
If you zoom in too closely this week, the volatility will feel enormous.
If you zoom out to the 125-year “Chart of Fears,” this will likely become another data point on a long upward slope.
Do not confuse headlines with permanent impairment of capital.
Do not let short-term fear override long-term planning.
And if you find yourself watching markets tick-by-tick, call us instead.
We’re watching on your behalf.
If you would like to review your portfolio positioning in light of current geopolitical risk, oil prices, inflation expectations, and Federal Reserve policy, schedule a conversation.
Long-term investing requires perspective.
Perspective requires discipline.
Stay steady.
If recent headlines have you questioning your portfolio, let’s talk.
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Dane Czaplicki is CEO of Members’ Wealth, a boutique wealth management firm that offers a comprehensive approach to serving individuals, families, business owners, and institutions. The firm’s goal is to preserve and grow its clients’ wealth to endure over time, while thoughtfully evolving its strategy to suit an ever-changing world. With over 20 years of wealth management experience, Dane and the Members' Wealth team thrive on bringing clarity and confidence to clients' unique situations. He believes everyone needs sound financial advice from someone whose interests are aligned with theirs, and is determined to put service before all else.
Dane received his MBA from The Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania and his bachelor’s degree from Bloomsburg University. Outside work, he enjoys spending time with his wife and kids, hiking and camping, reading, running, and playing with his dog. To learn more about Dane, connect with him on LinkedIn.
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