Markets in Flux: Tariffs, Tech, and the Tug of Policy
Uncertainty isn’t the enemy—it’s the environment. And for disciplined investors, it’s the environment where strategy thrives.
CEO Confidence and the Sentiment Gap
CEO confidence has cratered—82% of chief executives report worsening economic conditions compared to just six months ago. The mood on the ground from clients and business owners matches the data. The froth has evaporated. Spending is tightening across small businesses, real estate investors, and corporate teams.
We’re watching a broader psychological shift as people recalibrate to a higher-rate environment. It strikes me how many people were simply waiting for rates to fall again—as if the last four decades of interest rate decline would magically resume. But cycles move in decades, not weeks. We're only 3-4 years removed from what was likely the bottom of a 40-year interest rate trend. Look at the chart of the US Ten Year Treasury Yield. Eyeball it. Those low rates of 2019-2021 look very much like an anomaly. Just like the high rates of the early 80s. I’m not calling for 15 again, but not near zero either. And while I don't pretend to know where rates will go week to week, I do know this: capital will now have to earn its return on merit, not just on cheap money.
If you took advantage of low rates when they were here, great. But it's time to step into the reality of "higher for longer."
Tariffs Aren’t Noise. They’re a Reshuffling of the Global Deck.
This round of tariffs is not a blip. It’s a reshuffling of trade cards, a structural shift in how the world does business.
For two decades, we operated under the assumption of global free trade. That era is over. And like interest rates, trade dynamics don't revert quickly. These shifts are setting in motion decade-long realignments, not annual rebalancing.
To ignore this is to misread the environment. Portfolios need to reflect a world in motion—not one that's reverting to the past.
The Fed, Independence, and Behavioral Change
The Fed is doing its job: listening to data, not to politicians. Whether they hear the right message or act at the right time is always up for debate. But independence is critical.
Anecdotally, I see real-time evidence that behavior is changing. Just as investors are adjusting to higher borrowing costs, consumers are dialing back impulse-driven purchases. That may feel painful, but it's healthy. Less waste. More intentionality. The planet could use it. Households could use it.
Spending isn’t dead—it’s just being reprioritized. The world is still addicted to consumption. But at least we’re seeing signs of detox.
Geopolitics: Watching the Storm, Staying Disciplined
It’s hard not to feel anxiety watching missiles volley between Iran and Israel. I’ve heard the phrase “World War 3” thrown around since I was a kid. But basing portfolio strategy around doomsday scenarios hasn’t worked yet.
We don’t ignore the risk. We pressure-test every position. We revisit client circumstances. We adjust at the edges—trimming risk here, adding where it may benefit there. Recent volatility has opened up some interesting entry points. As always, we take action where it makes sense, but we don’t freeze in fear.
AI: The Fastest Adoption Curve in History
The real question with AI isn’t "which stock to buy" but rather, "how are we integrating it into our lives, our businesses, and our portfolios?"
The winners of this next era—both people and companies—will be those who let AI become part of their DNA. Those without a plan will get displaced by it.
At Members' Wealth, we want every team member using AI to enhance their work. And we want every investment we make to reflect that same mindset. AI is no longer theoretical. It's infiltrating everything. And it will make the world better—not just in productivity, but in wealth creation, if we pay attention.
Rebalancing Amid the Noise
The quarter was busy. We traded where it made sense, but more importantly, we listened. We reviewed every client’s position in light of where they are in life—new jobs, lost jobs, new babies, lost loved ones, rightsizing homes, making dreams like shore homes or mountain retreats come true.
Yes, the world is changing. But in the lives of our families, some things remain the same. Life keeps going. And we are privileged to be the ones who help them plan, adjust, and thrive through it all.
Final Word
If your investment strategy still assumes low rates, zero inflation, a slowdown in technology development, or global stability as a given, it might be time for a reset. Let’s align your portfolio with today’s reality—and tomorrow’s opportunity.
We don’t promise to predict the future. But we do promise to stay engaged, stay curious, and work every week to improve your financial outcomes, no matter what the headlines say.
Investment strategies, including rebalancing, do not guarantee improved performance and involve risk, including potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon.
All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such.
Dane Czaplicki is CEO of Members’ Wealth, a boutique wealth management firm that offers a comprehensive approach to serving individuals, families, business owners, and institutions. The firm’s goal is to preserve and grow its clients’ wealth to endure over time, while thoughtfully evolving its strategy to suit an ever-changing world. With over 20 years of wealth management experience, Dane and the Members' Wealth team thrive on bringing clarity and confidence to clients' unique situations. He believes everyone needs sound financial advice from someone whose interests are aligned with theirs, and is determined to put service before all else.
Dane received his MBA from The Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania and his bachelor’s degree from Bloomsburg University. Outside work, he enjoys spending time with his wife and kids, hiking and camping, reading, running, and playing with his dog. To learn more about Dane, connect with him on LinkedIn.
To get in touch with the Members’ Wealth team today, I invite you to email info@memberswealthllc.com or call (267) 367-5453.
You can learn more about how we serve our clients by tapping the button below.
Investment advisory services are offered through Members’ Wealth, LLC., a Registered Investment Advisory Firm.
Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training. We are an independent advisory firm helping individuals achieve their financial needs and goals
Members’ Wealth does not provide legal, accounting or tax advice. Please consult your tax or legal advisors before taking any action that may have tax consequences.
This commentary reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints and analyses of the Members’ Wealth, LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded as a description of advisory services provided by Members’ Wealth, LLC or performance returns of any Members’ Wealth, LLC client. The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice. Nothing in this commentary constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Members’ Wealth, LLC manages its clients’ accounts using a variety of investment techniques and strategies, which are not necessarily discussed in the commentary. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results
Copyright © 2023 Members' Wealth LLC