If you only read the headlines, you would think the AI gods just got knocked off Mount Olympus.
In November, we saw a cooling in the AI leaders after another round of “AI bubble” chatter. Nvidia fell during a tough Thanksgiving week, even after reporting strong earnings and strong forward guidance [1]. Alphabet (Google) went from perceived laggard to front-page leader after launching Gemini 3 and pushing its stock to new highs. What did the tech turkey say? – Google Google Google (actual joke at our Thanksgiving table)! The move drew public praise from tech founders and enterprise leaders [2]. Berkshire Hathaway quietly disclosed a multibillion-dollar stake in Alphabet, which had analysts scrambling to revisit their assumptions about long-term AI winners [3]. Reports then circulated that Meta (Facebook) may spend billions on Google’s TPU chips and that Google believes it can ultimately capture a meaningful share of the AI accelerator market [4]. And as if the month needed more news for Google, new benchmarks suggested that Google’s high end Gemini models could edge out OpenAI’s GPT-4 in controlled testing environments [5].
Crypto added its own volatility. Bitcoin lost more than eighteen thousand dollars in November, which marked its largest monthly decline since the 2021 drawdown [6]. It briefly traded in the mid-eighties thousand before rebounding. Ethereum and Solana saw steeper year-to-date drops.
The result was straightforward. AI stocks repriced. Crypto assets sold off. Markets saw a light Thanksgiving volume recovery (as did my marathon-weary legs 😉). By Monday morning, the sellers returned as markets worked through spending expectations and valuation risk.
This is what live experiments look like.
The AI narrative just got more complicated and that is normal
A month ago the story was “simple”. Nvidia owned the narrative and everyone else rented GPUs.
Now the landscape is more complex:
For anyone who has lived through prior technology cycles, none of this feels surprising. New technologies attract early winners, yet other strong firms do not simply surrender. Some leaders fade. Some lose their way for a decade. Others rediscover their purpose and rebuild.
America Online better known as AOL was once the face of the 1990’s internet boom. It never returned to relevance. Microsoft looked stagnant in the early 2000s. Then it re-anchored around a clearer purpose "To empower every person and every organization on the planet to achieve more". Its resurgence followed from that renewed sense of direction.
Leadership rotates. Narratives change quickly. This is why a financial life cannot be built around the story of the week.
A Thanksgiving week with Simon Sinek
Over the holiday, despite my oldest being home from college, I found time to read. Oh Yeah, because freshmen in college want to hang with their friends and boyfriend, not Dad. Well, at least not too much. So, I labored on some chores and listened again to Simon Sinek’s Start With Why. It felt timely given how investors are swinging between AI enthusiasm and AI fear, and how we at Members’ Wealth have been spending our weekly leadership meetings.
Sinek draws a meaningful distinction. Achievement is measurable. It is hitting a goal such as a revenue number or an AUM milestone. Success is different. Success is the feeling of being in alignment with your purpose. It is living your why rather than simply accomplishing a what [10].
Right now, markets are obsessed with AI achievements. Who sold more GPUs? Who won the latest benchmark? Who created the quickest path from two trillion dollars in market cap to three trillion.
Those are what questions.
The more durable question is which firms have a strong why. The firms that have a purpose and a culture that can withstand competition, regulation, and rotation. History shows that achievement alone is not enough. Firms with a clear why adapt. Firms without it often fall behind.
Our own WHY at Members’ Wealth
All of this AI noise came at a time when we were revisiting our Members’ Wealth founding value/vision/purpose/mission in our weekly leadership meetings.
Our guiding WHY is simple. We believe financial clarity changes everything.
Increasingly, we have been talking about financial clarity for anyone willing to do the work with us. Again and again, we have watched families transform when financial confusion is replaced by clarity, simplicity, structure, and accountability. Fear gives way to progress. Decisions become easier. Life opens up.
Most people hold back for three reasons. Fear. Time. Money. Fear of making a mistake. Lack of time. Not knowing how to organize the money they already have.
Financial clarity mitigates these problems more than any hot trade ever could.
Success for us is not measured in assets under management (an achievement), but rather, measured by whether families feel clarity around risk, investments, tax, and estate. Our R.I.T.E. framework. Success is measured by whether they feel equipped to make sound long-term decisions even when markets move quickly. It is measured by whether they feel free to live the kind of purposeful life they want.
What do you do with AI volatility and crypto swings
Here are a few thoughts for investors watching the recent moves.
At Members’ Wealth, our responsibility is not to predict the next AI leader (though that would be nice and we do try to seek out tomorrow's leaders 😉). Our responsibility Wealth Done R.I.T.E: to align risk, investments, tax, and estate planning with your purpose. When that alignment is in place, market rotations become interesting rather than existential.
A small ask and a next step
Two questions for you to consider this week. Are you building your financial life around achievement or success or both? And does your current portfolio reflect your why or mainly the headlines of the last few years?
If you are not sure, we are here for that conversation.
If you want a second set of eyes on how AI, crypto, and other innovations fit into your long-term plan, reply to this email or reach out through memberswealthllc.com.
If you want a second set of eyes on how AI, crypto, and other innovations fit into your long-term plan, reach out through memberswealthllc.com.
Footnotes & References
Investment strategies, including rebalancing, do not guarantee improved performance and involve risk, including potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Dane Czaplicki is CEO of Members’ Wealth, a boutique wealth management firm that offers a comprehensive approach to serving individuals, families, business owners, and institutions. The firm’s goal is to preserve and grow its clients’ wealth to endure over time, while thoughtfully evolving its strategy to suit an ever-changing world. With over 20 years of wealth management experience, Dane and the Members' Wealth team thrive on bringing clarity and confidence to clients' unique situations. He believes everyone needs sound financial advice from someone whose interests are aligned with theirs, and is determined to put service before all else.
Dane received his MBA from The Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania and his bachelor’s degree from Bloomsburg University. Outside work, he enjoys spending time with his wife and kids, hiking and camping, reading, running, and playing with his dog. To learn more about Dane, connect with him on LinkedIn.
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