Over the past week, several people have sent me articles highlighting the same concern: the growing level of U.S. debt and what it could mean for the long-term health of the country.
First, I would like to remind investors that even if debt problems are inevitable, timing matters.
Rome wasn’t built in a day. Neither was the United States. Rome fell, but depending on your definition of “fall,” it took 200 to 1,000 years. So Rome fell, but it also kind of didn’t. Now, at roughly 250 years old, the U.S. is still young. It faces challenges, but will we fix our problems, wallow in them, or crumble because of them? And how long will it take?
So will debt levels be fixed?
Will we grow our way out through innovation, AI, and productivity?
Are warnings simply people talking their book?
Or, more directly, marketing it? Fear sells.
One of the articles forwarded to me had a frightening headline and ended with a promotion for a product.
Or is all of this another reminder that the end of the world only happens once, so structuring a portfolio around apocalypse is rarely productive?
Big questions. Fair questions.
At the same time, this past week markets reminded us that assets often viewed as protection can be volatile too. Gold moved. Silver really moved. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies once again showed that independence from governments does not mean independence from price swings.
Bitcoin went from darling to pariah in a matter of weeks. Will the U.S. fall or will Bitcoin fall? I continue to place my confidence in the United States over any single alternative. But in practice, neither should dominate a diversified investment plan.
Understandably, the headlines and volatility make people uneasy.
So, is the United States still a good place for my money?
Here is how we think about it.
Concern about debt, decline, and disruption is not new. Every generation has faced moments when the headlines felt overwhelming and the future looked fragile.
I remember walking the streets of Manhattan in the 1990s and staring at the national debt clock. It felt scary then. It still does.
Since that moment, markets have gone up, down, sideways, and ultimately to levels few imagined at the time.
I remember learning about the Doomsday Clock as a kid. Today it sits perilously close to midnight, citing nuclear risk, AI, climate change, and geopolitical instability.
And yet humanity continues.
Empires fade. Predictions miss. The world adapts in ways almost nobody forecasts correctly.
This does not mean risks are fake.
It means perspective matters.
Businesses, especially great businesses, are often more durable than the political environments around them.
Some examples:
Of course companies fail. Nothing is immortal. But the ability of strong enterprises to evolve through extraordinary change is one of the most underappreciated forces in investing.
High-quality companies sell products people need. They generate real cashflow. They adapt. They operate across borders. They are not tied to a single election, policy, or news cycle.
When inflation rises, many can raise prices.
When regions weaken, global revenues can offset the blow.
When financing tightens, healthy balance sheets provide flexibility.
That resilience matters.
Diversification is critical, but it is deeper than simply buying something headquartered somewhere else. The globe is interconnected. Other countries have their own political tensions, debt burdens, and uncertainties. Geography alone is not a shield.
Quality, however, travels well.
Owning durable businesses across industries and revenue sources has historically been one of the most reliable ways investors have preserved and grown purchasing power during difficult periods.
Now an important truth.
Even the best companies experience price volatility.
Prices move, sometimes violently, often for reasons that have little todo with long-term value. That is the admission price for participating in markets.
Our job is not to eliminate movement.
Our job is to be ready for it and, when appropriate, to capitalize on it.
Preparation means emphasizing financial strength, avoiding excessive leverage, maintaining diversification so no single outcome defines success or failure, and keeping a long view when emotion pressures short-term decisions.
The headlines will keep coming. Predictions will get louder. Assets marketed as safe will occasionally surprise us.
Through it all, the discipline of owning quality and remaining prepared endures.
This week, I was encouraged to see some deleveraging in the most speculative areas of the market. From what we could observe, any pressure on high-quality assets, often the source of liquidity during margin calls, was limited and did not create widespread dislocation.
In other words, enthusiasm in some of the more speculative trades cooled. That is healthy.
As conservative fundamental investors, we view this as constructive. Were main optimistic and continue looking for opportunities to add quality when volatility creates them.
If the recent news cycle has you thinking about your plan, we are always here to talk.
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Dane Czaplicki is CEO of Members’ Wealth, a boutique wealth management firm that offers a comprehensive approach to serving individuals, families, business owners, and institutions. The firm’s goal is to preserve and grow its clients’ wealth to endure over time, while thoughtfully evolving its strategy to suit an ever-changing world. With over 20 years of wealth management experience, Dane and the Members' Wealth team thrive on bringing clarity and confidence to clients' unique situations. He believes everyone needs sound financial advice from someone whose interests are aligned with theirs, and is determined to put service before all else.
Dane received his MBA from The Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania and his bachelor’s degree from Bloomsburg University. Outside work, he enjoys spending time with his wife and kids, hiking and camping, reading, running, and playing with his dog. To learn more about Dane, connect with him on LinkedIn.
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