This weekend, for the first time this season, Kai stepped onto the wrestling mat with the kind of grit that only a kid chasing progress can show. BOOM. Wrestling is brutally honest. One moment you’re on your feet; the next you’re staring at the lights, wondering how you got there. She started strong and finished strong, in the middle…a lesson.
What matters most isn’t the winning; it’s showing up, learning, evolving, and staying around for your adaptations to pay future dividends.
Markets work the same way. Headlines flip from optimism to anxiety in a matter of hours, and investors often react to the emotion of the moment rather than the underlying trend. What we’ve seen in the fourth quarter is a perfect example: volatility early on, followed by renewed momentum as we head into December.
Now some call this the Santa Claus rally. For non- Santa believers that no longer “hear the bell” they may simply recognize the mechanics—fewer sellers, deferred tax decisions, and some folks buying more of what’s winning.
But beneath the surface, it’s more a combination of belief and resilience.
Momentum Meets Reality: What to Watch into Year-End
From a macro perspective, in my opinion, two forces are worth tracking as we move towards the close of 2025:
The 10-year Treasury continues to show stubbornness. Markets have been bouncing within a defined channel, and the longer a pattern holds, the more significant the eventual breakout—up or down. No prediction here, just awareness: prolonged compression often precedes meaningful movement.
We know what market participants seem to think they want: lower rates. But will Santa deliver on lower rates or will 2026 just bring more coal? I for one am not sold on rates going lower. At least not without further centralized manipulation by the US Federal Reserve of the yield curve. But I could be wrong. It has happened before. Thus, we remain staggered in our time horizons in our bond portfolios for clients.
Jobs data remains key. The question isn't just how many jobs—but what kind of jobs—and whether labor markets can adapt to the rapid shifts brought on by technology and AI. A generation of young professionals could find themselves lagging economically if the early years of their careers don’t sync with where the economy is heading. That matters for long-term consumption, household formation, and investment behavior.
Real estate prices remain “steady to slightly soft” in many areas, while holiday spending looks strong among those participating in the market rally. That bifurcation: soft spots in housing, strength in discretionary spending by higher-end spenders, often appears late in cycles.
None of this is doom or euphoria. It’s context. And all related. Less jobs means less demand from an increasing pool of people. Less demand means pressure on real estate prices which is, for many folks, their largest asset. This tends to lead to more cries for lower rates, but with the Fed typically mainly focused on the short end of the curve, relief seems to be tempered and we all sit wondering if the Fed will do more but then all scratch our heads if more that results in more inflation, which we do not necessarily want either. And on and on.
A Quick Risk Check Before Year-End
At Members' Wealth, we constantly remind clients that risk exposure drifts. Strong markets push allocations above target. If you haven’t rebalanced in a while, now may be the time to revisit whether your portfolio reflects:
Your target from 12–18 months ago may not be your target today.
This is where liquidity matters most. Investors earning $300,000 per year with several million in short-term reserves often have a decade of liquidity without needing to touch equities. Whether that residual portfolio is 50/50, 70/30, or even 90/10 depends more on purpose—legacy, philanthropy, long-term growth—than age alone.
Contrary to popular belief, risk tolerance does not always decline with age. Experience sometimes increases an investor’s comfort with volatility, provided they have adequate liquidity and context.
A Wrestling Lesson for Investors
This weekend, Kai faced competitors with big records—and others with no record at all. Any coach will tell you it’s often the unknown no-record freshman who comes in with one big move, one headlock, and suddenly the match flips.
Markets do the same thing.
You don’t always get taken down by what you expect.
But here’s the truth: if you’ve trained, if you’ve prepared, if you’ve built discipline—you’re harder to pin. You get up faster. You adapt. Or you lose the one match and come back stronger for the next.
Investing early isn’t just a story about compounding. It builds emotional muscle memory. It teaches you what an investment headlock feels like so you don’t panic the next time.
That’s one of the reasons why disciplined investors often become more confident with risk as they mature—not less.
The Takeaway
As we approach year-end, here’s the mindset I want you to carry:
Just like Kai, the question is never whether you get taken down.
It’s whether you get back up—and whether you keep stepping onto the mat.
If you’d like to review your allocation, risk levels, or liquidity positioning heading into 2026, let’s talk. It’s a good time to revisit the plan. Schedule a meeting with members wealth on memberswealthllc.com.
[i] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/03/adp-jobs-report-november-2025-private-payrolls-unexpectedly-fell-by-32000-.html
[ii] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/08/how-recent-grads-are-dealing-with-the-shrinking-pool-of-entry-level-jobs.html?&qsearchterm=jobs%20report
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Dane Czaplicki is CEO of Members’ Wealth, a boutique wealth management firm that offers a comprehensive approach to serving individuals, families, business owners, and institutions. The firm’s goal is to preserve and grow its clients’ wealth to endure over time, while thoughtfully evolving its strategy to suit an ever-changing world. With over 20 years of wealth management experience, Dane and the Members' Wealth team thrive on bringing clarity and confidence to clients' unique situations. He believes everyone needs sound financial advice from someone whose interests are aligned with theirs, and is determined to put service before all else.
Dane received his MBA from The Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania and his bachelor’s degree from Bloomsburg University. Outside work, he enjoys spending time with his wife and kids, hiking and camping, reading, running, and playing with his dog. To learn more about Dane, connect with him on LinkedIn.
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