Bitcoin, which we’ve written about cautiously in the past, has surged past $100,000 per coin, actually more like $120,000 per coin this morning. Gold is now trading above $3,000 per ounce. In both cases, our cautious stance hasn’t aligned with recent price performance.

Let’s be clear: Bitcoin and Gold still don’t meet our definition of an investment. They don’t produce cash flow, generate earnings, or pay dividends. There’s no underlying business, no rental income, no loan repayment. They rely solely on price appreciation, driven by belief, not intrinsic value. And yet… they’ve made people money.

We often categorize them as hedges, not investments. They may offer some protection against fiat currency devaluation, monetary excess, or geopolitical instability. But they’re not productive assets. That distinction matters.

Still, in a world where government debt is exploding, central banks are experimenting with monetary tools that would have once seemed unthinkable, and confidence in fiat currencies is fraying, it’s getting harder to ignore the psychology that drives these asset prices.

Sometimes, price becomes the narrative.

That’s the challenge of speculation. It thrives on momentum and emotion. The classic greater fool theory suggests you buy an asset simply because someone else may pay more later. And at this point, in this current cycle, the greater fool isn’t necessarily the one buying—it’s the one left on the sidelines. Frustrating, to say the least.

To illustrate the risks: take a look at inflation-adjusted gold returns.

 
If you bought gold during the last major global inflation crisis in the early 1980s, you might still be underwater—or barely ahead—on a real return basis. We don’t yet have a comparable long-term inflation-adjusted chart for Bitcoin. But the volatility speaks for itself.

So, What Now?

At Members’ Wealth, we continue to avoid large speculative allocations. But we acknowledge that many investors are asking the right questions: What role, if any, should Bitcoin or gold play in a portfolio designed to preserve and grow wealth?

Our answer is measured. For some fearing FOMO, a modest, intentional, and coordinated allocation to gold or Bitcoin may make sense—as part of a broader financial strategy. But speculative positions taken without a disciplined framework often carry more risk than reward.

We define investments by their ability to produce value. But not everything that makes money meets that definition—and not everything outside it should be ignored.

So, yes—we’re watching. We’re analyzing. We’re discussing. And we’re willing to adjust, if and when the broader picture warrants it.

But we won’t chase. Because when speculation dominates the conversation, it’s discipline that keeps long-term investors grounded.

If you're wondering whether Bitcoin or gold belong in your financial plan—or how to size and structure speculative assets—we’re here to help.

Investment strategies, including rebalancing, do not guarantee improved performance and involve risk, including potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. 
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About the Author

Dane Czaplicki, CFA®

Dane Czaplicki is CEO of Members’ Wealth, a boutique wealth management firm that offers a comprehensive approach to serving individuals, families, business owners, and institutions. The firm’s goal is to preserve and grow its clients’ wealth to endure over time, while thoughtfully evolving its strategy to suit an ever-changing world. With over 20 years of wealth management experience, Dane and the Members' Wealth team thrive on bringing clarity and confidence to clients' unique situations. He believes everyone needs sound financial advice from someone whose interests are aligned with theirs, and is determined to put service before all else.

Dane received his MBA from The Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania and his bachelor’s degree from Bloomsburg University. Outside work, he enjoys spending time with his wife and kids, hiking and camping, reading, running, and playing with his dog. To learn more about Dane, connect with him on LinkedIn.

To get in touch with the Members’ Wealth team today, I invite you to email info@memberswealthllc.com or call (267) 367-5453. 

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