Oracle came through in a big way to help me continue the AI Tech Overbuild story I’ve been writing about.

The sheer size of its move last week was nothing short of extraordinary. Oracle—a massive, established company—traded like an emerging market small-cap that just discovered the world’s largest deposit of rare earth minerals. Larry Ellison’s net worth spiked $100 billion in hours, on paper at least, before shares already began giving some back.

For context: Oracle was a big player in the hype of the 1990s, and while it survived and ultimately thrived, it took nearly 15 years for its stock to retake its dot-com peak. Survivors endure—but not without scars.

Personally, I’m conservative by nature. A 40%+ one-day gain triggers the “sell it all” voice in my head. Of course, that’s not how we operate—we look at fundamentals, cash flows, and positioning—but the phrase “don’t look a gift horse in the mouth” comes to mind.

Where This Fits the Series

As I noted in the past, this feels like another massive infrastructure build-out. That’s exciting—but also raises the question: are we overdoing it in the short run? History says overcapacity destroys early investors but sets the stage for the next wave.

Beyond Oracle: The Macro Backdrop

Oracle caught all the headlines—but we also got important macro data:

• PPI (Producer Price Index): wholesale price inflation, an early read on input costs.
• CPI (Consumer Price Index): consumer price inflation, the cost of living we all feel.

Both reports (kind of?) leaned softer, convincing speculators the Fed will cut rates. The question is no longer if, but by how much—25 or 50 basis points. Or so it seems…

Here’s where it gets tricky:

• The labor market is softening.
• Inflation is still near 3%.(maybe..)
• Housing is cooling, though the real issue has been supply and affordability.
• Stocks are flying high and expensive relative to history

Lower rates don’t necessarily solve these problems. If growth slows further while inflation lingers, that’s the textbook definition of stagflation. Investors in the 1970s learned how punishing that environment can be: high unemployment, sticky inflation, and volatile markets that erode real wealth.

Big Question

Was Oracle’s surge the equivalent of it’s own blow-off top in 2000—marking the peak before a long drought? Or is it simply the next stage-setting moment for a new bull run in AI infrastructure? Will the Fed deliver expectations this week or a big surprise. Either way, in both cases, buckle up…in for some fun this week.

Bottom Line: Oracle’s $300 billion week was historic. But history reminds us not to confuse momentum with inevitability. Survivors endure—but investors who ignore stagflation risk, or confuse short-term exuberance with permanent gain, may not.

📩 If you’d like to review how your portfolio is positioned for both the opportunities and the risks in AI infrastructure—and in a potential stagflationary backdrop—let’s talk.

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About the Author

Dane Czaplicki, CFA®

Dane Czaplicki is CEO of Members’ Wealth, a boutique wealth management firm that offers a comprehensive approach to serving individuals, families, business owners, and institutions. The firm’s goal is to preserve and grow its clients’ wealth to endure over time, while thoughtfully evolving its strategy to suit an ever-changing world. With over 20 years of wealth management experience, Dane and the Members' Wealth team thrive on bringing clarity and confidence to clients' unique situations. He believes everyone needs sound financial advice from someone whose interests are aligned with theirs, and is determined to put service before all else.

Dane received his MBA from The Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania and his bachelor’s degree from Bloomsburg University. Outside work, he enjoys spending time with his wife and kids, hiking and camping, reading, running, and playing with his dog. To learn more about Dane, connect with him on LinkedIn.

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