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Snow Forecasting and Market Forecasting

by Dane Czaplicki on Jan 26, 2026

 

Young man freezing in warm clothing with city concept
 
I catch myself doing it every winter. Watching the snow forecast like it is a storyline.
 
Part of it is still the kid in me. Snow meant surprise. A different pace. A break from the usual.
 
Part of it is the adult in me. A slower weekend. Family time. Chili. A fire. A book I keep meaning to finish. The quiet satisfaction of knocking out those home chores we all postpone until the world gives us permission to stay put.
 
Snow has a way of changing tempo.
 
And that is why it reminds me of markets.
 
Long range forecasters love to tell us what is coming weeks in advance. We hang on their every update, dripping with anticipation and anxiety. Investors do the same thing with market predictions. Honestly, I am not sure who has the tougher job.
 
In the long run, both forecasts tend to be directionally right. It will snow again. Markets tend to rise over time.
 
In the short run, the details matter. A storm tracks 50 miles east and you get a dusting instead of a foot. A market narrative shifts and you get a sharp pullback instead of a smooth climb. Sometimes the move is violent. Sometimes it is subtle. Either way, the short run is where most people get emotionally whipped around.
 
That brings us to this week.
 
Broadly, markets have started the year in a constructive mood, with participation across styles and regions. But the part of the landscape I am watching most closely is not the equity scoreboard. It is interest rates.
When rates rise, bond prices feel it. The math is unforgiving. And more importantly, rising rates can create second order effects that show up later in credit spreads, refinancing stress, and business confidence. Rates can rise until they break something. We are not there yet, but the risk is worth respecting.
 
One more signal is hard to ignore right now. Gold just pushed through major highs and the headlines have been loud about it, with gold moving above $5,000 an ounce.
 
Gold does not tell us exactly what happens next, but it does raise good questions.
 
Is the market being cornered?
 
Are there fewer natural sellers at current prices?
 
Is it a message about inflation staying stickier than expected?
 
Is it a message about geopolitics and trust in institutions?
 
Signals rarely hand you a clean answer. They do tell you where to look.
This is also a big week for earnings.  Earnings season matters because it pulls the conversation back to fundamentals, cash flows, guidance, and capital spending. It is a reminder that long term investing is not about guessing the next storm. It is about owning businesses and assets you understand, sized appropriately, inside a plan built for multiple outcomes.
 
Which brings me to a simple ask.
 
It is quarterly meeting season. If you have not already, schedule your quarterly review. Not to predict the next market move, but to make sure your portfolio risk, liquidity plan, and cash flow strategy still match the season you are in.
 
Stay warm. Happy investing.
 
 
 
 

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The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. 
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About the Author

Dane Czaplicki, CFA®

Dane Czaplicki is CEO of Members’ Wealth, a boutique wealth management firm that offers a comprehensive approach to serving individuals, families, business owners, and institutions. The firm’s goal is to preserve and grow its clients’ wealth to endure over time, while thoughtfully evolving its strategy to suit an ever-changing world. With over 20 years of wealth management experience, Dane and the Members' Wealth team thrive on bringing clarity and confidence to clients' unique situations. He believes everyone needs sound financial advice from someone whose interests are aligned with theirs, and is determined to put service before all else.

Dane received his MBA from The Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania and his bachelor’s degree from Bloomsburg University. Outside work, he enjoys spending time with his wife and kids, hiking and camping, reading, running, and playing with his dog. To learn more about Dane, connect with him on LinkedIn.

To get in touch with the Members’ Wealth team today, I invite you to email info@memberswealthllc.com or call (267) 367-5453. 

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