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by Dane Czaplicki on Mar 23, 2026
Over the past few weeks, it has felt like markets were one headline away from something breaking.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East were escalating. Oil prices were jumping. Interest rates were moving sharply higher. Then last week the Federal Reserve pivoted to sound more hawkish than many expected. (Tim Macarak, CFP covered this well last week: https://www.memberswealthllc.com/insights/a-hawkish-pause-and-a-firm-stance-powell-isnt-going-anywhere)
If you were looking for the ingredients for a short-term market shock, they were all there.
And yet… markets held in better than expected.
That disconnect is worth paying attention to.
The Rise of the “Wait and See” Investor
In environments like this, the natural instinct is to sit and wait (or for some to sell and wait).
Wait for clarity.
Wait for stability.
Wait for confirmation.
To be clear, “sit and wait” is a very effective strategy when it comes to avoiding emotional decisions. It helps investors avoid “selling and waiting” into fear and locking in losses during volatile periods.
But there is another side to that coin. Waiting can also mean missing.
TACO Trades, Tweets, and Market Conditioning
One dynamic we think is playing out beneath the surface is behavioral: Investors have become conditioned.
Conditioned to geopolitical noise.
Conditioned to policy swings.
Maybe most relevant, conditioned to what some are calling “TACO trades”: Trump Always Chickens Out…so when Trump makes a move that sends markets down, you should sit and wait or buy the dip, for once the pressure becomes too much for Trump, he will chicken out and go back to status quo, sending markets higher once again.
Whether you agree with the term or not, the behavior is real.
Markets are learning to absorb shock faster. Investors are learning not to overreact.
That resilience can be a strength. But it can also create complacency.
What We Think Moved the Needle Last Week
While most of the attention was on geopolitics and oil, what caught our attention was something quieter, but more important.
Interest rates moved higher. Quickly. (See Red arrow on US 10 Year Treasury Rate graph since start of US Israel Bombing Feb 28th)
Late in the week, we saw a meaningful shift in yields. Not a headline-driven spike, but a real repricing of risk. That matters.
Because when interest rates move, everything else eventually responds. I am a long-time believer (not a forever believer, I needed to be schooled a few times first early in my career) that seemingly everything is priced by rates. Or at the very least interest rates are a key component in the pricing of every other asset in the world.
The Opportunity Most Investors Miss
Here is where the “wait and see” approach can fall short. When rates rise, bond prices fall.
That is not a negative. That is the mechanism that creates opportunity.
It is no different than stocks going on sale during a pullback. Rising yields mean fixed income is being repriced to offer more attractive forward returns.
As we moved into the weekend, we began preparing to take advantage of that shift if rates held or moved higher into the new week.
Not aggressively. Not all at once. But intentionally.
This Morning’s TACO Reminder
As I write this on the morning of 3/23/26, headlines are already shifting again.
Talk of a pause in hostilities between the U.S., Israel, and Iran has pushed stock futures higher. Maybe it holds. Maybe it doesn’t.
That is the point. If your strategy depends on getting clarity first, you will almost always be late.
A More Productive Way to Think About Volatility
At Members’ Wealth, we try to separate two ideas:
Not reacting emotionally to volatility
…and…
Using volatility when it creates opportunity.
Those are not the same thing.
For investors holding high levels of cash, taking advantage of volatility does not necessarily mean jumping into equities all at once.
Sometimes it simply means stepping into fixed income when yields become more attractive. Sometimes it means rebalancing. Sometimes it means doing nothing.
The key is to have a framework before the moment arrives.
As we often remind ourselves, risk is not necessarily volatility, but rather the permanent loss of capital. Thus, volatility, when approached with discipline, can be a tool.
Final Thought
“Wait and see” can protect you from making a mistake.
But it can also prevent you from making a second level good decision for future returns.
The goal is not to predict the next headline. It is to be prepared for multiple outcomes and act when opportunities present themselves.
That is portfolio stewardship.
If you have elevated cash levels or are unsure how to position your portfolio in today’s interest rate and geopolitical environment, now is a good time to revisit your strategy.
Schedule a conversation with Members’ Wealth today.
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About the Author
Dane Czaplicki, CFA®
Dane Czaplicki is CEO of Members’ Wealth, a boutique wealth management firm that offers a comprehensive approach to serving individuals, families, business owners, and institutions. The firm’s goal is to preserve and grow its clients’ wealth to endure over time, while thoughtfully evolving its strategy to suit an ever-changing world. With over 20 years of wealth management experience, Dane and the Members' Wealth team thrive on bringing clarity and confidence to clients' unique situations. He believes everyone needs sound financial advice from someone whose interests are aligned with theirs, and is determined to put service before all else.
Dane received his MBA from The Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania and his bachelor’s degree from Bloomsburg University. Outside work, he enjoys spending time with his wife and kids, hiking and camping, reading, running, and playing with his dog. To learn more about Dane, connect with him on LinkedIn.
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