How sure are you? I got this question from my Partner Tim this week. I also got it from a client. I got it from my wife and my daughter. I asked it of my coach, and a friend and of a networking group. Crazy week of uncertainty on various topics or just more aware of the question for some reason, unsure, Ha!

As it pertains to the markets and economy, the question has come up a lot lately. Clients, colleagues, even other advisors ask if I’m sure the market will keep climbing, if AI is really a bubble, if the data we’re seeing actually tells the truth.

Here’s my answer. I’m sure of one thing: uncertainty never goes away.

Of late, every week, we see signs the U.S. economy is slowing.

• Hiring is cooling.
• Credit-card delinquencies are at the highest level since 2012.
• Manufacturing has been in contraction for over a year.
• Small businesses are cutting hours and delaying investments.
• The yield curve is steepening again after nearly two years of inversion.

At the same time, the signals conflict:

• Corporate earnings keep surprising to the upside.
• Valuations that I think should have reverted haven’t.
• Tech is booming while old-line industries tread water.
• Inflation is cooling but is it really – depends where you are spending your money.
• The Fed is easing while credit tightens.

Truth depends on your angle. It’s like opening the box and finding the economy both expanding and slowing at once.

I suppose I could have written most any of this in any week in history. There’s always data pointing in opposite directions. And even when the data is accurate and available (not necessarily the case these days), two rational investors can read them and reach opposite conclusions based on time horizon, knowledge, or experience.

Which is why investing never gets easier.

If you’re doing it right, the hardest part is always ahead of you. Same goes for running a business or training for a marathon. You don’t reach a point where it’s effortless—you just become more conditioned to handle the effort.

So when I’m asked, “How sure are you?” I say I’m sure that now is the most difficult time to invest—because it always is. Markets evolve, narratives shift, and certainty remains an illusion. The work is to stay grounded, disciplined, and invested through both fatigue and euphoria.

As earnings roll in this week—from Coca-Cola and GE to Netflix and Tesla—we’ll hear plenty of takes on what it all means. Some will say soft landing, others stagflation, others something in between. For long-term investors, what matters isn’t guessing the next headline but staying prepared for the next turn.

Because it never gets easier. You just get better at navigating whatever comes next.

So how sure am I? As sure as my youngest turning 16 next week — certain it’s coming, uncertain where the time went and very uncertain where its all going.

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About the Author

Dane Czaplicki, CFA®

Dane Czaplicki is CEO of Members’ Wealth, a boutique wealth management firm that offers a comprehensive approach to serving individuals, families, business owners, and institutions. The firm’s goal is to preserve and grow its clients’ wealth to endure over time, while thoughtfully evolving its strategy to suit an ever-changing world. With over 20 years of wealth management experience, Dane and the Members' Wealth team thrive on bringing clarity and confidence to clients' unique situations. He believes everyone needs sound financial advice from someone whose interests are aligned with theirs, and is determined to put service before all else.

Dane received his MBA from The Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania and his bachelor’s degree from Bloomsburg University. Outside work, he enjoys spending time with his wife and kids, hiking and camping, reading, running, and playing with his dog. To learn more about Dane, connect with him on LinkedIn.

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